Session: Last Millennium & Past2K
Author: Hans Linderholm / firstname.lastname@example.org / University of Gothenburg, Sweden
Co-author: Nerilie Abram, The Australian National University, Australia;
Oliver Bothe, Helmholtz-Zentrum Geesthacht, Germany;
Belen Martrat, Spanish Council for Scientific Research, Spain, & University of Cambridge, UK;
Helen McGregor, University of Wollongong, Australia;
Raphael Neukom, University of Bern, Switzerland;
Steven Phipps, University of Tasmania, Australia;
Scott St. George, University of Minnesota, USA;
Lucien von Gunten, PAGES International Project Office, Switzerland;
The past 2000 years (the “2k” interval) provides critical context for recent anthropogenic forcing of the climate, baseline information about Earth’s natural climate variability, opportunities to improve the interpretation of proxy observations, and evaluation of climate models. The PAGES 2k Network (2008-2013 Phase 1; 2014-2016 Phase 2) used peer-reviewed data from various archives at a wide range of resolutions, which met strict quality control requirements, to build regional and global surface temperature reconstructions for terrestrial regions and the oceans. Comparison with realistically-forced climate model simulations, including the PMIP3 Last Millennium ensemble, was used to identify mechanisms of climate variation on interannual to bicentennial time scales.
In May 2017 Phase 3 (2017-2019) was launched, focusing on the following goals:
1) Further understand the mechanisms driving regional climate variability and change on interannual to centennial time scales (Theme: “Climate Variability, Modes and Mechanisms”)
2) Reduce uncertainties in the interpretation of observations imprinted in paleoclimatic archives by environmental sensors (Theme: “Methods and Uncertainties”)
3) Identify and analyse the extent of agreement between reconstructions and climate model simulations (Theme: “Proxy and Model Understanding”)
In Phase 3, research is organized as a linked network of well-defined projects and targeted manuscripts, identified and led by 2k members in a culture of collegiality, transparency, and reciprocity. The 2k projects focus on specific scientific questions aligned with Phase 3 goals, rather than being defined along regional boundaries. Phase 3 seeks to stimulate community based projects and facilitate collaboration of researchers from different regions and career stages, drawing on breadth and depth of the global PAGES 2k community; support end-to-end workflow transparency and open data and knowledge access; and develop collaborations with other research communities and engage with stakeholders. Links with the climate modelling community, and particularly PMIP, will be critical to our success. In this contribution we illustrate some relevant applications using results from Phase 2 as a basis for working together with the PMIP4 Working Group on similar questions. If you would like to participate in PAGES 2k Phase 3 or receive updates, please join our mailing list, or speak to a coordinating committee member.