Session: Last Millennium & Past2K
Author: Elena Garcia-Bustamante / email@example.com / CIEMAT (Madrid, Spain)
Co-author: J. Fidel Gonzalez-Rouco, UCM (Madrid, Spain);
Laura Fernandez-Donado, UCM (Madrid, Spain);
Juerg Luterbacher, JLU-Giessen (Germany);
Johann Jungclaus, MPI-Hamburg (Germany);
A pool of existing published temperature reconstructions covering the last millennium over East Asia/China provides a suitable framework to investigate the variability of paleotemperatures at the regional scale. A sensitivity analysis based on the impact of a few methodological variants, as for instance the nature and number of proxies, the instrumental data or the method used to calibrate the reconstructions, is conducted to help constrain the uncertainty associated to the regional estimates. An ensemble of state-of-the-art simulations from various climate models following the PMIP3/CMIP5 protocol is used to evaluate the similarity between reconstructed and simulated regional temperature trajectories. Special emphasis is given to last decades warming trends in the region from the reality of models, reconstructions and simulations. New estimates of seasonal temperatures for the last thousand years over East Asia are proposed.